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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement receives the award. However, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the biggest shock.

But this year's race is distinctly different. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners fading and recent underperformers ascending collectively. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a wild and thrilling season, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a typical year!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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