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Mounting concerns are present over the possibility of armed conflict among Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as aggressive rhetoric has intensified in the last month.

What Did Ethiopia Declared?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, requests for access to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has provoked a heated rhetorical conflict.

PM Abiy Ahmed previously announced in 2023 that his government's maritime access was an vital issue, statements that Eritrea rejected.

Relations between the two countries have often been tense. After a decades-long fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) sea border, officially seceded from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, making it landlocked.

In 1998, a border war erupted in which numerous people were killed.

Recent Remarks from Ethiopia's Government

Abiy and army chief the army commander have openly claimed sovereignty of Eritrea's maritime facility of the port of Assab – about 60km from the border - and implied the intention to take it by force.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said the country's "mistake" of losing access to the sea as a due to Eritrea secession would be "rectified tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "using武力".

Eritrea's Answer to the Statements

Despite ongoing threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to concise remarks on X from Information Minister the minister.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's demand for sea access labeling it "dangerous" and a "harmful plan" of "territorial claims" – a policy of reclaiming previous domains.

Eritrean authorities alerted on mid-September that efforts to validate "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Preparations on the Ground

So far, there are no reports of major military movements in the frontier regions between the two countries.

Nevertheless, in the country, national TV has broadcast completion events of many recruits at different defense facilities.

The director of human resources department of the military, General Hachalu, recently said in an discussion that the military was in a "strong stance" as "tens of thousands of young people" were enlisting, which he said was "a signal to our enemies".

Historical Background of the Conflict

For over fifty years from 1890, the territory was administered by Italian colonisers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the UK forces before turning into a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I terminated this arrangement and Eritrea became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year internal conflict ensued, ending with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Independence was then confirmed by voters in a plebiscite in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they disagreed over the exact location of their mutual frontier, leading to conflict in 1998.

Though this ended in a peace deal in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors continued at odds.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The two endorsed a statement that the war was concluded – a action that won the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The both administrations were then partners in the country's 2020-2022 internal conflict in the northern region.

However ties have later worsened once more.